Overview of Bob Doll’s 2023 Financial Predictions
Bob Doll, the Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments, faced a challenging year with only five of his ten financial predictions for 2023 proving correct. This marked a downturn from his usual success rate, with this year’s outcomes being his lowest in over three decades of making forecasts. Doll noted that the financial environment in 2023 was particularly unpredictable, with unanticipated economic resilience dampening his expected recession and interest rate dynamics evolving differently than he had anticipated.
The Accuracy of 2023 Predictions
Doll’s incorrect predictions highlighted several key miscalculations:
- His anticipation of a mild recession was contradicted by robust consumer spending and strong employment, which supported continuous economic growth.
- Doll miscalculated the performance of the stock market, expecting no major asset class to experience double-digit changes. Instead, significant gains were driven by major tech stocks.
- His sector-based predictions missed the mark as growth stocks outperformed value stocks contrary to his expectations, particularly in technology and communication services.
- The prediction that active equity managers would surpass market indices did not come to fruition, primarily due to the dominant performance of top tech companies.
- His forecast that international stocks would outperform U.S. stocks was incorrect, as American mega-cap growth stocks surged ahead.
Reflections and Projections for 2024
On the brighter side, Doll accurately foresaw a significant decrease in inflation rates, though they remained above the Federal Reserve’s target. He correctly predicted that the federal funds rate would stabilize at 5% for the latter part of the year and identified pressures that led to lower-than-expected earnings. His global demographic and political predictions, such as India surpassing China in population and growth, along with the early announcements from numerous U.S. presidential candidates, were also spot on. As Doll prepares his 2024 outlook, he expresses skepticism about the optimistic consensus surrounding earnings growth and potential economic stability. His reflections offer valuable lessons and caution for investors looking forward to 2024.